Brazil runoff polls: Flávio narrowly ahead of Lula

By VSH Editorial Desk · Published October 14, 2026, 7:10 AM EDT · Last updated October 14, 2026, 7:10 AM EDT

National Congress buildings in Brasília under blue sky — Photo: “Brasilia National Congress” by Xenia Antunes, Brazil. · Public domain · via Wikimedia Commons

In brief

With Brazil's presidential runoff set for 25 October 2026, several registered surveys released around 13 October show Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) narrowly ahead of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) on valid votes, often inside or near the margin of error.

Named survey snapshots

BTG/Nexus (10-12 Oct, 2,002 voters, TSE BR-07997/2026) reported Flávio 52% to Lula 48% on valid votes (48% to 45% including blanks/undecided). PoderData/AYA (10-12 Oct, 3,000 interviews, TSE BR-01209/2026) had Flávio 51% to Lula 49% on valid votes. Datafolha (6-7 Oct, 2,520 interviews, TSE BR-02949/2026) reported 52% to 48% on valid votes (49% to 45% of total).

Official first-round baseline

TSE results from 4 October gave Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03% and Lula 45.16% of valid votes, forcing the runoff under Brazilian law.

Reminder

Polls are not predictions. Averages move as new fieldwork publishes. Confirm figures on the pollster pages and official TSE releases.

Last updated: 14 Oct 2026. Neutral. ViralScopeHub does not endorse candidates.

Why it matters

Brazil's runoff is one of the world's largest elections this month and moves global markets and diplomacy.

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Sources

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