How to read the aurora forecast
The coloured band is NOAA’s OVATION model, which estimates the chance of seeing aurora directly overhead in the next 30–90 minutes. Green means a low chance, yellow moderate and red high. The band usually forms a ring around the magnetic poles, called the auroral oval. When the Sun is active, the oval grows and slides towards the equator, bringing the northern lights to places like southern Canada, the northern US, Scotland and northern Europe.
What is the Kp index?
The Kp index measures disturbance in Earth’s magnetic field on a scale from 0 to 9. Kp 0–2 is quiet, 3–4 is unsettled or active, and 5 or more is a geomagnetic storm. As a rough guide, Kp 3 can bring aurora to far-northern Canada and Scandinavia, Kp 5 to cities like Edmonton or Oslo, and Kp 7 or higher to much of the northern US and central Europe.
Tips for seeing the northern lights
- Get away from city lights and look north (south in the Southern Hemisphere).
- The best hours are usually from about 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. local time.
- Check for clear skies: even a strong aurora is hidden by clouds.
- Phone cameras in night mode often show colours that eyes see as pale grey-green.
- A bright Moon makes faint aurora harder to see.
Space weather can change quickly. For official watches and warnings, see the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
Frequently asked questions
What Kp do I need to see the aurora?
It depends on latitude. Far-northern regions often see aurora at Kp 2–3, mid-latitudes may need Kp 5–7.
How far ahead can aurora be forecast?
The map covers the next 30–90 minutes. Multi-day outlooks are less certain because they depend on solar activity reaching Earth.
Is the southern aurora shown too?
Yes. The map shows both the aurora borealis (north) and aurora australis (south).
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Data and credits: Aurora forecast and Kp index: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (public domain). Map imagery: NASA GIBS. Labels © OpenStreetMap contributors. Leaflet. See all Live Earth & Space tools and our credits page.