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IEA warns global diesel shortage could last into 2027
In brief
The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that the global diesel squeeze caused by the Iran war is likely to continue well into next year. In its monthly Oil Market Report, the Paris-based agency said supplies of gasoil, which includes diesel and heating oil, will fall short of demand in the fourth quarter, and lost inventories are unlikely to be rebuilt before the second half of 2027.
Why supply is tight
Combined net gasoil exports from the Middle East and Russia fell by about 1.3 million barrels a day from a year earlier in September, The National reported, citing the IEA. Gulf export routes remain constrained and Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged Russian refineries, while extra shipments from the US and China only partly filled the gap.
Wholesale diesel prices hit record highs of around 220 US dollars a barrel in Europe and the United States in September, and US diesel pump prices topped 6 dollars a gallon for the first time, the agency said.
Stocks are low before winter
US diesel stocks ended September at a 14-year seasonal low, and European commercial gasoil inventories fell to a 25-year low in July, according to the report as summarised by The National. The IEA said that without a recovery in refined-product exports from the Middle East, further cuts in consumption may be needed to balance the market.
Demand and supply outlook
The agency expects world oil demand to fall by 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026, with diesel making up about a quarter of that drop, CNBC reported. Oil supply is forecast to fall 5.8 million barrels a day this year before rebounding by 7.7 million in 2027, though the IEA warned that renewed attacks in the Gulf leave that recovery fragile.
Planning a road trip while fuel is expensive? Our fuel cost calculator estimates the cost of any drive. You can also compare price changes with the percentage calculator.
Last updated: 14 Oct 2026. General news summary, not financial advice. ViralScopeHub is not affiliated with the IEA.
Why it matters
Diesel moves food, goods and farm equipment, so a long shortage keeps transport and grocery costs high and adds to inflation worldwide.
Related free tools: Fuel Cost Calculator, Percentage Calculator
Sources
- The National: Diesel shortage to persist into 2027 as Iran war disrupts supply, IEA warns
- CNBC: Diesel squeeze set to last well into 2027 as Iran war disrupts supply, IEA says
- IEA: Oil Market Report (OMR)
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