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UN report: warming will pass 1.5°C, but fast, deep emission cuts could bring it back down by 2100
In brief
The UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2026, titled The Point of Return and published on October 21, says global warming will now exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. But it says deep, fast cuts could keep the overshoot as small and short as possible, limiting peak warming to about 1.7 to 1.8°C around mid-century and bringing temperatures back to 1.5°C by the end of the century.
The numbers in the report
According to UN News, the lowest-overshoot path requires cutting emissions by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels. If current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8°C this century. Even if every national climate plan is delivered, warming would be limited to 2.6°C. The report says those outcomes are worse than last year's projections, partly because the United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement and because estimates of past emissions were revised.
Reasons for hope
UNEP points out that since the 2015 Paris Agreement renewable energy has boomed, energy supply from coal and oil has grown more slowly than expected, and climate policies have cut emissions in many places. The report calls for faster delivery of goals such as tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling the rate of energy-efficiency gains by 2030, and for halting deforestation. The next global stocktake begins at the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, next month. "Overshoot is not surrender," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said.
VSH take: the headline sounds gloomy, but the message is that every tenth of a degree still counts. Saving energy at home helps too: check your driving costs with our fuel cost calculator, read our explainer on the 2026 super El Niño, and watch weather systems live on our Live Earth from space page.
This is our own summary of UN News coverage of the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026. ViralScopeHub is not affiliated with the United Nations.
Why it matters
The yearly Emissions Gap Report shows how far national climate plans are from the Paris goals and sets the stage for negotiations at COP31.
People also ask
What does the Emissions Gap Report 2026 say?
That warming will exceed 1.5°C, but deep, fast emission cuts could limit the peak to about 1.7-1.8°C and return warming to 1.5°C by 2100.
How big are the cuts needed?
18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels.
Where is warming heading under current policies?
Up to 2.8°C this century, or 2.6°C if all national climate plans are delivered.
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Sources
Every ViralScopeHub news item is an original summary written in our own words. We link to the original reporting so you can read the full story from the publisher.
